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Good morning, folks!
I suggest everyone reads today’s post. Of course, I suggest everyone reads all posts. But today’s, in particular, brings one of those rare episodes that, paradoxically, happen more often than they should.
I also took the chance to share a few reflections I don’t normally bring into the Radar. However, these are reflections that deserve to surface when circumstances call for them. And in one of our cases today, the circumstances demanded it.
Anyway, here you go:
1) Trubar Inc $TRBR.V
Who remembers the Trubar case? In short, a fast-accelerating CPG with the optionality of a takeout on the horizon.
Regarding the acceleration, our attention was fixed on signs of heavy reliance on aggressive subsidies. As we wrote in Radar 16:
“The growth engine continues to be marketing and aggressive incentives. Wherever we look—vendor discounts, gross margin, marketing expenses—we are left with the impression that expansion is only sustained through strong subsidies.”
As for the possibility of a sale, our impression was that management was not only open to an exit but actively preparing the ground for it. And that it could come with a nice premium:
“Furthermore, Trubar even posted this table with recent M&A activities in the sector. A clear demonstration of management’s willingness to seek a future exit.” Radar 12
“There is still clear room for TRUBAR to capture a good premium in an exit, but until that happens, it would be interesting to see the company manage to better balance growth and profitability.” Radar 16
Well, the sale happened!
Trubar announced its sale agreement to the Turkish giant ETİ Gıda for C$1.64 per share in cash. A 64% premium over the last closing price and over 100% since our last update. The expectation is that everything will be done by the first quarter of 2026, resulting in a profitable outcome for shareholders.
Now, a small confession. I tried a Trubar bar a few days ago. I didn’t like it. But I’ve long noticed that my palate is a bit like a film critic who’s completely out of touch with the audience.
So I’ve learned my lesson. My personal taste deserves very little weight when I analyze this kind of business. It gets in the way. It creates noise. What matters far more are things like distribution, velocity, and consumer uptake. The streets tell truths my palate insists on hiding from me.
Anyway, case closed here, and congratulations to all Trubar shareholders!
2) Intellego Technologies $INT.ST
I don’t know if Sweden produces soap operas the way Brazil does. But if they don’t, they could easily start by using Intellego as inspiration. Intellego in 2025 was pure dramaturgy, the kind that makes the audience laugh, cry, and faint all at once.
There was euphoria, collapse, a shootout between bulls and bears, and, as in any respectable tragedy, police banging on the door and handcuffs gleaming in the light of a major scandal. A wild saga, great to follow.
I mentioned Intellego for the first and only time here back in early April. After that, the stock more than tripled. And, defying the gospel of social-media engagement (the one that preaches repeating booming tickers ad nauseam), I chose to leave it alone. My only other comment came now, in November:
And when I said “far from over,” I confess I had no idea what was waiting just around the corner. Less than a week after that tweet, Intellego’s CEO was arrested.
Yes, arrested!
In light of this latest development, it’s worth retracing the recent history of a name which, whether we like it or not, ended up becoming one of the main characters of the year for global small-cap investors.
So let’s walk through what happened, month by month:
APRIL (+95.2% in the month)
Preliminary Q1 2025 Results:
Revenue > SEK 200 million (+150% vs Q1 2024)
EBIT > SEK 100 million (+138% vs Q1 2024)
EBIT target of SEK 160 million for 2025 reached in just 4 months.
MAY (+7.12%)
Q1 2025 Report released:
Revenue: SEK 201 million (+152% vs Q1 2024)
Net Profit: SEK 94 million (+165% vs Q1 2024)
CFO: SEK 28 million (vs SEK 34 million Q1 2024)
Guidance Revision:
Revenue: > SEK 600M (vs previous 265M)
EBIT: > SEK 250M (vs previous 102M)
In other words, +126% revenue and +145% EBIT YoY.
JUNE (-5.2%)
New CFO: Hans Denovan, starting in September. Goal is to prepare Intellego for accelerated internationalization and a possible uplisting.
Warrant exercise ~SEK 34.6m.
JULY (+69.9%)
Preliminary Q2 2025 Results:
Revenue > SEK 200 million
EBIT > SEK 100 million
Revised EBIT target of SEK 250 million for 2025 already surpassed at the beginning of Q3.
AUGUST (+53.9%)
Q2 2025 Report released:
Revenue: SEK 217 million (+297% vs Q2 2024)
Net Profit: SEK 112 million (+747% vs Q2 2024)
CFO: SEK 67 million (vs SEK 9.9 million Q2 2024)
New Guidance Revision:
Revenue: > SEK 700M (vs previous 600M)
EBIT: > SEK 400M (vs previous 250M)
SEPTEMBER (-26.93%)
EBIT target (the one revised for the second time) of SEK 400 million for 2025 already surpassed.
Warrant exercise ~SEK 22.8m.
OCTOBER (-44.73%)
Preliminary Q3 2025 Results:
Revenue > SEK 290 million (+300% vs Q3 2024)
EBIT > SEK 172 million (+700% vs Q3 2024)
Buyback recommendation of up to SEK 100 million.
Additional clarification, in a separate release, regarding cash position. Issued on the same day as the preliminary results.
Subsidiary Yuvio receives an order of EUR 22 million from a German customer.
Additional clarification regarding the Yuvio press release. Days after announcing the €22M order, Intellego clarified that the client is MoveoMed GmbH and that the equipment was sold but not yet delivered.
New COO: Henrik Resmark, starting in January.
Board issues statement rebutting accusations, reinforcing strong financial position, robust governance (Deloitte audit, IFRS, bank due diligence), defending strategic partnerships (LiKang, Henkel), warning of possible market manipulation by third parties, and affirming focus on transparency, growth, and preparation for future main market listing.
Nasdaq Stockholm demands rectification of the previous statement.
Share issuance to Heights Capital Management (HCM), raising SEK 210 million in immediate cash.
Announcement that they will anticipate the Q3 report release by two weeks.
NOVEMBER (-43.78%)
Q3 2025 Report released:
Revenue: SEK 294.2 million (+296% vs Q3 2024)
EBIT: SEK 171.6 million (+698% vs Q3 2024)
Net Profit: SEK 81 million (+559% vs Q3 2024)
CFO: SEK 36 million (vs -SEK 5 million Q3 2024)
Buyback: Still wants to do it, but not right now after the deal with HCM.
2026 Target:
Revenue: SEK 2 billion
EBIT: SEK 1 billion
CFO Change. Hans Denovan left, and COO Henrik Resmark took on the CFO position in addition to his current role.
Board issues statement reaffirming that the business remains healthy and decides to propose a buyback of up to SEK 250 million (up to 10% of shares) given the drop in share prices.
Company issues statement informing that LiKang increased purchases of dosimeters after strong market feedback.
CEO Arrest. CEO Claes Lindahl, just one day after the LiKang statement, was arrested on suspicion of gross fraud. Swedish authorities believe the company misled the market through its 2025 press releases and quarterly reports. A freeze of SEK 100 million of the company’s cash was ordered.
Board member Jacob Laurin takes over as interim CEO.
Trading suspended and Nasdaq Stockholm initiates delisting process. The exchange informed that, following recent events, it saw grounds to remove Intellego from public trading and granted the company until December 5, 2025, to present its defense or counterarguments before the final decision.
EKN and SEK filed a police report against Intellego on suspicion of fraud.
Hiring of KPMG to conduct an independent forensic investigation into its financial statements.
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Conclusion
The reading of these events is enough to make an investor raise an eyebrow. Explosive growth, even more explosive guidance revisions, a CFO who comes and goes in a matter of months, press releases that need a press release to explain the press release, an overdose of optimism, a buyback, then dilution, then another buyback…
These are the old, familiar red flags. And Intellego, let’s be honest, didn’t have just one or two. It had a whole parade.
I won’t go through the full catalog of red flags here. Plenty of investors have already done that far more thoroughly than I ever could. Andrew’s YAV post is a great starting point if you want to go deeper. He even recounts a rather revealing call he once had with the then-CEO, Claes Lindahl.
What really captures my attention are the reactions to the red flags. There was no shortage of intelligent, competent people defending the thesis tooth and nail. People whose work I genuinely respect. Every red flag found its explanation, its excuse, its “this is just part of the playbook.”
The issue with red flags is that any single one, in isolation, doesn’t say much. It’s like a headache on a Monday. It could be a hangover, it could be a bad night’s sleep, it could be any of life’s minor annoyances. But when it’s followed by fever, nausea, and body aches, it becomes a diagnosis.
Companies aren’t much different. When the warning signs stack up, the most sensible approach is to keep your distance. The market is vast, and we don’t need to play every game it invites us to.
The question that lingers (and returns every so often) is why truly great investors held onto their optimism despite the mounting red flags?
The most heated bears will say it’s incompetence, that “these people never did any real analysis.” Nonsense. That’s just the emotional outburst of someone who spent months in a narrative war and now feels vindicated. Very good people make very ordinary mistakes. We’re all human.
For me, the answer doesn’t lie in analytical skill but in cognitive biases. Which is why those red-flag explanations weren’t analysis. They were rationalizations.
The thesis felt almost irresistible. Astronomical growth, low multiples and a founder with meaningful skin in the game. The presence of other smart investors and the arrival of Deloitte as auditor added authority and legitimacy. The soaring stock price fueled resulting and FOMO. The army of optimists offered that comforting sense of belonging against the bears.
In truth, the tribal war against the bears went well past healthy debate. It turned into months of heated arguments, sarcasm, and visceral blows. Nothing inflames conviction like this kind of attack. Public declarations cement a position. No one wants to look inconsistent. And in a such polarized environment, any legitimate critique from “the other side” gets dismissed outright.
There are many biases. And I am sure many of these investors know them all by heart. But as Kahneman taught us, knowledge doesn’t grant immunity. Recognizing biases is one thing, but escaping them forever is impossible.
What remains, then, is to consider what we can actually do about it. A bias checklist, perhaps. It may sound almost embarrassing, as if we need to write down the obvious. But if airplane pilots, with their own lives at stake, rely on checklists to avoid forgetting the essentials, why shouldn’t investors, who battle the constant threat of self-deception?
Or, at the very least, let’s embrace a simple, almost naive rule:
If I need to justify too many red flags, I am no longer analyzing.
I am rationalizing.
And when that happens, the wisest move is to step back and move on to the next one!